Why Saudi’s coalitions born dead
The last Saudi declaration to form the “Islamic Military Coalition” to fight terrorism, as new attempt from Riyadh to defend its regional role, politically, economically and militarily.
Noticeably, the “Islamic Military Coalition” is announced from the big GCC countries and include 34 states most notably Egypt, Turkey, GCC countries & African states, in absence of those states who are in direct intact with terrorism such as Iraq and Syria; shows that the collation is un-homogeneity, furthermore, forming military force from mentioned countries is such impossible mission for many reasons related to a wide spread disagreement within the countries, and procedural matters associated to the geographical and legal problems.
Eventually, Islamic Military Coalition seems that it cannot change the form or the balance of power on the ground, further, it would be hard bet that the coalition could force on the regional and national players to relocate or restate their position.
What count for Riyadh declaration is that; it realized the importance of having strategic plan in opposing the successful spread out of the regional and international players in the region without strategic gain to Riyadh in the war zone.
However, Saudi Arabia reaction till now (Yemen war, the stretch out Arabian coalition, Islamic Military alliance) seems not effective to position itself in the region as a strategic substitute and realistic plan on front of the big Iranian project or the Turkish one. Also, those regional players could not convince the international players (US & Russia) for their regional project nor even adopt stake on it.
It seems what absence is or hidden from Riyadh is that the birth of this historical moment in the Middle East is that the political, military, or economic alliance is not goal by its self. What is not yet comprehended by Riyadh is that the coalition built by understanding. It’s one of the accommodated ways that parties and states to execute their agendas that already been agreed on, and to fulfill specific needs, that is clear and circumstantial.
In quick review, coalition’s doesn’t mean state merge as Riyadh tried to accomplish, with the rest of the GCC countries, meanwhile Oman has explicit objection, and conceal stand expressed from Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. There is no assurance for long term coalitions as Riyadh understood from the US and Iran recent deal, as Washington ignored it is historical alley.
In addition, Riyadh has to understand that alliances is built through agreements between all parties on a clear mission and goal; which Riyadh failed to accomplish in the recent coalition for the Yemen war. Riyadh agenda had clash with the Emirate on how to deal with the Al-Islah “Muslim Brotherhood”; another mistake was to include both Turkey and Egypt without paying attention that those states are not alike, and have dispute over the Goal of the alliance which is “ War on Terrorism”.
If Riyadh wish is to build effective coalition that strength it is position regionally and make gains in the war zones. It has to create a realistic project; in order to do so, there is a need to get rid of the emotional reactions at first; which is create by the current regional crisis.
Substantially, such project is surrounded with potential opportunities and face-standing challenge that should jostle by Riyadh against Turkey and Iranian politic projects, and international projects. Within the opportunities and challenges, wisdom and will, will be tested.